Thursday, December 22, 2011
What are the risks faced if countries leading the military intervention in Libya arm the largely unknown -?
Good question. It's a distinct possibility, today's 'freedom fighters' will be tomorrow's 'terrorists'. I expect one of two things to happen in Libya in the coming months. Either Gaddafi will be forced out, or the rebels will take over the eastern half of Libya and set up a separate state. Since almost all of Libya's oil is located in eastern Libya, Gaddafi can be left in power (since the object of this whole deal was never about humanitarian concerns in the first place, as we all know), and he can keep Tripoli and not much else but desert sand on that side of the country. The new East Libya will be a client state which will allow unfettered access to oil supplies in return for the help it received from Britain/France/the USA, but also in return for some foreign aid (ie cut price weapons) to keep Gaddafi at bay should he try to invade (most foreign aid comes in the form of export credits to be used to purchase armaments made by the nation supplying the aid). Just in case anyone was in any doubt, here's Mustafa Abdel Jalil, the "rebel leader" and Gaddafi’s justice minister until February, pledging in May that "Our friends... will have the best opportunity in future contracts with Libya". Of course, as per your question, history shows us that backing a horse to win doesn't always give us the result we want, and Jalil and his cronies might well turn out to be Islamic nutters, or be ousted by Islamic nutters. Libya isn't a faraway place like Afghanistan, it's right on Europe's doorstep.
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